–Subhalaxmi Dash
Bhubaneswar: The Narendra Modi-led government is likely to return to power at the Centre. According to reports released by various survey organizations in collaboration with national media, Narendra Modi is set to win a landslide victory for the third consecutive time. Exit polls indicate that the BJP-led NDA will secure over 350 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. In Odisha, BJP is expected to win more than 15 Lok Sabha seats. Although no major organizations have yet released reports on who will form the state government, there is speculation that Naveen Patnaik will receive full support. Meanwhile, due to silent voting by the electorate in this election, BJD’s tally may also be inaccurate.
In the ongoing general elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Odisha four times. During these visits, he conducted roadshows in Bhubaneswar, Puri, and Bargarh. His roadshows witnessed massive crowds of supporters and party workers. When addressing victory rallies in Brahmapur, Nabarangpur, Phulbani, Balangir, Bargarh, Angul, Cuttack, Baripada, Baleswar, and Kendrapara, the atmosphere was charged with chants of “Modi” and “Jai Shri Ram.” The 2024 election scenario appears to be entirely different from the 2019 elections. The general public is once again expressing a preference for Modi’s government. Similarly, there is talk that the people of Odisha are seeking change in the state government this time. In the 2019 elections, out of 21 Lok Sabha seats, BJD won 12, BJP 8, and Congress 1. In the state assembly elections, BJP secured 23 seats. However, this time, due to a different atmosphere, the number of seats might increase.
Lok Sabha Exit Poll Results
According to India TV’s exit poll report, BJP is likely to lead in the state. Out of 21 Lok Sabha seats, BJP may win 15-17 seats. BJD is expected to get 4-6 seats, and Congress might secure 0-1 seat. Similarly, “Jan Ki Baat” predicts 15-18 seats for BJP, Chanakya forecasts 16 seats, “India News” predicts 13 seats, ABP-CVoter predicts 17-19 seats, India Today-Axis My India predicts 18-20 seats, and NDTV also forecasts 15 seats for BJP in Odisha.
Will the Old Formula Work?
Booth-level surveys predict more than 350 seats for NDA under BJP’s leadership. If changes occur in the booth survey data and BJP performs well in states like West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, crossing 400 seats will not be difficult. Today’s Chanakya, My Axis, and CNX booth surveys predict more than 400 seats for NDA. In the 2019 elections, all organizations showed NDA getting 300-310 seats, but the actual result was different with NDA winning 353 seats. Similarly, in the 2014 elections, News24-Chanakya predicted 340, India TV-C Voter 289, CNN-IBN-CSDS 280, ABP Nielsen 274, and India Today 272 seats for NDA, but NDA won 336 seats.
Odisha Assembly Survey
According to the India Today-Axis My India survey, both BJD and BJP could secure between 62-80 seats. Congress is expected to win 5-8 seats. The “Jan Ki Baat” survey suggests Biju Janata Dal may get 81 seats in the Odisha Assembly, BJP may win 58, and Congress may win 8 seats. The “School of Politics” has predicted that BJD will be ousted from power, giving them 46-59 seats.
How Many Seats Will BJP Win in the Assembly?
Discussions in the state indicate that BJD will secure more than 90 seats while BJP will be content with 40-45 seats. In the 2019 elections, voters gave one vote to Modi and another to Naveen. BJP won 8 Lok Sabha seats, BJD 12, and Congress 1 seat. In the Assembly, BJP secured 23 seats. If BJP wins 15 Lok Sabha seats this time, it may secure around 60 Assembly seats. Congress, other parties, and independents may get a maximum of 10 seats. However, if BJD forms the government, it will have around 75-80 MLAs.
Subhalaxmi Dash,
MA English with Communication Studies, Christ University, Bengaluru Yeshwanthpur Campus.